Robinhood Stock Is About 27% Below Its Record. What Would It Take to Get Back There?

Robinhood, the US trading app that made commission-free investing popular, has been one of fintech’s big stories of the past year. Its shares closed at a record $152.46 on 9 October 2025, shortly after the company joined the S&P 500 index. A year later, the stock is trading around $111, roughly 27% below that peak.

A new Motley Fool analysis predicts the stock will set a new record before 2029. Here’s what’s actually driving Robinhood’s business, the maths behind that prediction, and the risks.

This is news and analysis, not investment advice. TechPeza doesn’t recommend buying or selling any stock.

Robinhood’s Latest Numbers

According to Robinhood’s second-quarter 2026 results:

Its August 2026 operating data showed:

• equity trading volume of $335 billion, up 68% year on year
• 293 million options contracts traded, up 50% year on year
• 28.6 million funded customers
• $384 billion in total platform assets
• net deposits of $4.0 billion, a slower 14% annualised growth rate

The big shift: prediction markets

The most striking number is event contracts, Robinhood’s prediction-market product, which lets users trade on the outcome of events. Revenue from it jumped more than tenfold to $156 million in the quarter, overtaking crypto revenue for the first time as crypto fell 38%.

Robinhood now says 13 different business lines each generate more than $100 million in annualised revenue. It’s no longer just a stock-trading app.

The maths behind the “new record” prediction

Motley Fool contributor Daniel Sparks argues the stock can return to its record through earnings growth alone:

• Robinhood trades at about 38 times the earnings analysts expect for 2027.
• To justify $152.46 at that same multiple by late 2028, Robinhood would need about $4 in earnings per share in 2029, nearly double its $2.05 in 2025.
• That requires roughly 18% earnings growth a year, slower than the 31% it posted in 2025.

But he also cautions that if investors become less willing to pay such a high multiple (for example, 30 times earnings), the company would need closer to 25% yearly growth. He concludes the prediction says more about the business than about the stock as an investment at today’s price.

The Risks

Even supporters point to real risks:

• Slowing deposits: net deposits fell to a 14% annualised rate in August, half the second quarter’s pace.
• Crypto weakness: crypto revenue dropped 38% in Q2.
• Interest income: net interest revenue grew only about 9% as short-term interest rates fell.
• Legal challenges: prediction markets, Robinhood’s fastest-growing product, face lawsuits linked to US state gambling laws.
• Valuation: at around 38 times expected earnings, Robinhood is priced far higher than rivals like Charles Schwab (about 12 times). If growth slows, the stock could fall even while profits rise.

What it means for Nigerian readers

• Robinhood doesn’t serve Nigerian residents. Its brokerage operates in markets such as the US, UK and parts of Europe.
• The trends still matter here. Robinhood’s growth shows where retail investing is heading globally: mobile-first trading, subscriptions, and prediction markets. Expect Nigerian fintechs to watch closely.
• Be careful with “foreign stock” and “prediction” apps. Nigeria’s SEC has repeatedly warned about unregistered investment platforms. Before using any app to invest, check its registration on sec.gov.ng.

Sources

• Prediction and valuation maths: The Motley Fool, 2 Oct 2026
• Q2 2026 results: Robinhood Investor Relations; Yahoo Finance; Investing.com
• August 2026 operating data: GlobeNewswire

This article is for information only and isn’t financial advice.
Credit: The Motley Fool analysis is credited and linked. Its prediction is presented as the author’s opinion, not ours.